The upcoming New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech college football matchup on October 24, 2023, promises to be an exciting Conference USA showdown. Here’s an in-depth look at the game, along with New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech prediction, and betting insights.
What is the New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech Prediction?
What is the New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech Prediction? The upcoming matchup between New Mexico State Aggies and Louisiana Tech Bulldogs on October 24, 2023, offers a compelling contrast between two teams heading in opposite directions.
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New Mexico State (5-3, 3-1 CUSA) comes into the game riding a three-game winning streak, with dominant performances against teams like FIU, Sam Houston, and UTEP. They’ve consistently scored over 27 points in four of their last five games, making them a potent offensive threat. Here’s an overview into insights:
| Betting Factor | Insight |
| Spread | Louisiana Tech favored at -3 |
| Over/Under | Set at 55.5 points |
| Moneyline | New Mexico State +130, Louisiana Tech -154 |
| New Mexico State ATS Record | 6-2 ATS this season, 3-1 ATS on the road |
| Louisiana Tech ATS Record | 3-5 ATS this season |
In contrast, Louisiana Tech (3-5, 2-2 CUSA) has been struggling, losing four of their last five games. Their lone win came against a UTEP team positioned at the bottom of the Conference USA standings.
Both teams are entering the game with contrasting momentum. New Mexico State (5-3, 3-1 CUSA) is riding a three-game winning streak, defeating FIU, Sam Houston, and UTEP by significant margins. In contrast, Louisiana Tech (3-5, 2-2 CUSA) has faced struggles, losing four out of its last five games, with its only win coming against a lower-ranked UTEP team.
Game Overview:
- Date: October 24, 2023
- Time: 7:00 PM ET
- Location: Joe Aillet Stadium, Louisiana Tech
- TV Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
Which Key Players to Watch?
The current betting odds favor Louisiana Tech at -3 on the spread, with a total points over/under set at 55.5. The moneyline odds stand at New Mexico State +130 and Louisiana Tech -154, reflecting a slightly higher probability for a Bulldogs win.
Dimers’ simulation model, which runs 10,000 game scenarios, gives Louisiana Tech a 59% win probability, with New Mexico State holding a 41% chance of pulling off an upset.
Best Player From New Mexico State:
Diego Pavia: The Aggies’ dual-threat quarterback has been stellar this season, accounting for over 2,300 total yards and 20 touchdowns. His ability to perform under pressure will be crucial for New Mexico State’s success.
Best Player From Louisiana Tech:
Smoke Harris: The wide receiver has been a key player, coming off a performance with 11 receptions for 129 yards before Louisiana Tech’s recent bye week. His ability to exploit New Mexico State’s defensive vulnerabilities in the passing game could be a game-changer.
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What Are the Overall Betting Insights?
One key factor to watch is the defensive struggle Louisiana Tech faces, having allowed an average of 33 points per game in their last five matchups. New Mexico State’s efficient offense, led by quarterback Diego Pavia, will likely test the Bulldogs’ defense throughout the game.
Conversely, Louisiana Tech will rely on their home-field advantage at Joe Aillet Stadium to break their recent slump and avoid falling further in the CUSA standings.
For bettors, it’s essential to consider that while Louisiana Tech is favored, New Mexico State has been more consistent recently, both offensively and defensively. This could make New Mexico State a tempting pick, especially against the spread.
For those looking at the over/under, the total points line of 55.5 seems achievable given both teams’ recent scoring trends, especially with New Mexico State’s offensive firepower.
Louisiana Tech, despite their current form, is seen as the favorite. This contrarian pick might be influenced by their explosive playstyle on offense.
They rank highly in offensive explosiveness, particularly with big plays in the passing game, despite struggling in overall offensive success rate.
New Mexico State’s defense, on the other hand, has excelled in passing down situations, but they have yet to face an opponent of Louisiana Tech’s offensive caliber during their winning streak.
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Betting Insights:
- Spread: Louisiana Tech is favored at -3.
- Over/Under: Set at 55.5 points.
- Moneyline: New Mexico State +130, Louisiana Tech -154.
- The Aggies are 6-2 ATS (against the spread) this season and 3-1 ATS on the road.
- They have gone under in every game as an underdog this season.
- The Bulldogs are 3-5 ATS this season, and their inconsistent offensive performances make them a risky bet, despite their status as favorites.
What Are the Predictions?
Heading into the matchup between New Mexico State Aggies and Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, one of the key aspects to consider is how the teams will perform under pressure. Louisiana Tech, despite recent struggles, has a knack for explosive offensive plays, particularly in the passing game.
With quarterback Jack Turner leading the charge, Louisiana Tech will likely look to exploit New Mexico State’s secondary, especially with standout receiver Smoke Harris being a reliable deep threat.
Harris, a dynamic playmaker, has proven time and again his ability to get open in crucial moments, which could be the key to revitalizing Louisiana Tech’s offense.
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Meanwhile, New Mexico State has been excelling on both sides of the ball in recent weeks. Quarterback Diego Pavia has been a dual-threat force, amassing yards through the air and on the ground, providing his team with versatility in attacking defenses.
New Mexico State’s ground game, featuring Pavia and running back Star Thomas, will be crucial in controlling the clock and keeping Louisiana Tech’s offense off the field.
- Projected Final Score: The game is expected to be close, with many experts predicting a scoreline around Louisiana Tech 29, New Mexico State 25. This projection aligns with the betting spread favoring Louisiana Tech by a small margin.
- Key Factors: Louisiana Tech’s ability to limit turnovers and capitalize on big plays will be critical. Additionally, New Mexico State’s strong offensive line and Diego Pavia’s mobility provide them an edge in sustaining drives, particularly if Louisiana Tech’s defense continues to struggle against the run and pass.
Final Words: Expert Pick!
Most analysts favor Louisiana Tech to win by a slim margin, citing their home-field advantage and potential for explosive plays. However, New Mexico State’s stronger recent performances and their quarterback’s dynamism could lead to an upset, making them a valuable bet on the moneyline at +130 odds.
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In summary, this game’s New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech Prediction has all the makings of a tightly contested matchup, with Louisiana Tech being the favorites, but New Mexico State having the tools to potentially cause an upset. Fans and bettors alike will need to consider both teams’ trends and recent form before placing their bets.
Disclaimer: Always bet responsibly and within your means.